MY CHOICE, YOUR CHOICE.

"Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once...." I have actually said some of these before but I will repeat some parts again.

2007: Umaru was hardly around so Aremu dragged Ebele across Nigeria campaigning for Shehu’s kid brother.

In 2003, we recorded a ~70% voters' turnout and Aremu took the largest portion of the cake. Over 24 million votes went to him while Zara’s daddy got 12.7 million. That was my man’s first taste of electioneering in Nigeria. Aremu was under cifia pressure from within his party and had to go through a primary election to defeat about 5 others to carry his party’s umblerra. Tom Ikimi’s voice from that night can still be heard beyond eagle square till now: “Obasanjo, Obasanjo, Obasanjo ... and Obasanjo- Ekwueme, Obasanjo....Rimi.. and Obasanjo...” The party chairman then Barnabas Germade had 17 votes to his name.

Aremu was ruthless that year. Bola Ige had been assassinated in 2001 and one of the main opposition parties from 1999, the Alliance for Democracy AD appeared to be in disarray. The men who had stood clearly opposed to Obasanjo began to sing a different tune towards 2003. They had been sold a Yoruba agenda and they bought it without collecting change. They were not going to field a presidential candidate but would support the PDP at the center to ensure a Yoruba man got another term.

I remember watching the Late Adesanya telling reporters that he had looked through the list of candidates and didn’t find any better than Aremu. I don’t know if this diagnosis was the reason Adesanya’s daughter became a minister of state in Aremu’s government after the 2003 election.

I couldn’t vote that year because Aremu didn’t listen to what ASUU had to say so schools were shut conveniently from January to June. We lost Six months just like that and also missed out on the use of our polling units on campus. During that strike period, I attended an event at Canaan land in Otta. Bishop Oyedepo had many guests in attendance and one was Governor Olusegun Osoba. I remember him getting the microphone and making some political statements. He was sure that he would get his second term. I shook my head where I was, the man who like the other Southwest governors went about campaigning and saying “vote for us at the state level but vote Obasanjo at the center” didn’t know they were butter dancing in the sun.

Obasanjo didn’t reciprocate that campaign equation but mocked the AD and asked his supporters to vote PDP at all levels. Osoba, Adebayo, Akande, Adesina and Adefarati all fell like a damaged ceiling. Aremu had duped them and got his goons in using ‘mago-mago’ tactics. The only man who survived was Tinubu in Lagos and that was a hard fought battle in the rain; 1+million to over 900,000 was how Bola shaded the late Williams. Such a vote count has not been seen in Lagos since that time.

Aremu broke the backs of Afenifere and the old men began their trips to political oblivion. Broda Bola soldiered on even when denied lawful allocation by Aremu. Those governors from 1999 practiced federalism. They either had ambitious projects like Duke’s TINAPA or religious ones like establishing Sharia. Local government chairmen functioned then and things were still normal. Clashes and conflicts also spread through the land.

Back to 2007:  Aremu’s template from 2003 was utilized but this time they overdid it and everything was clearly a mess with ~58% voters’ turnout. Umaru who couldn’t campaign for himself got 24+ million votes with Buhari coming a distant second with a 19 points gap sorry 6+million votes. Atiku oko Titi had fled the PDP and found refuge under broda Bola’s makeshift tent the Action Congress AC. He came in third with about 2.7 million votes after Aremu had blocked him from inheriting his stool probably due to the William Jefferson bribery affair in the US of A. 2007 was so flawed that Ojukwu who had 1.27million votes in 2003 could only muster just over 155,000 votes in an election in which Shehu’s brother got the majority of the votes in what was supposed to be Ojukwu’s stronghold. How did Aremu achieve this feat? I guess I was a full blown idealist in 2007, grammar and cerebral gymnastics were enough to woo me then.

It got to the Supreme Court but one judge decided to uphold the 2007 election when the right thing to do should have been an annulment. Umaru admitted the flawed election and promised to make things right but his body began to fail. We saw less and less of him and things were clearly not fine. Aondoakaa said all sorts of jargon and Dora looked stunned most times. They said Turai was the one running things but Ebele was just looking. The struggle to get him acting began but he didn’t seem to have the requisite ambition. I don’t know how much power Turai wielded but she was in charge. Dambazau got in a supposedly very ill Umaru, an event which Ebele didn’t know about and the rest is history.

2011: I was convinced Jonathan didn’t do enough to continue as president. I was also convinced that Nigerians would vote for Buhari/ Bakare instead. Buhari won in the Northeast and Northwest despite having a party that started out late. Total votes were about 12.2 million while Jonathan won all the Southern states except Osun (won by ACN’s Ribadu) with 22+ million votes. 11 million of these votes were from the Southeast and South-South put together. I couldn’t explain how Jonathan still earned such amount of votes but he continued.

I figured that I couldn’t reason for all Nigerians and expect them to understand idealism. I began to take politics serious.

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I figured out after the 2011 elections that I needed to understand Nigeria, Nigerians and why the elections went as it did. Let us not forget the post-election violence which the PDP managed to blame on Buhari through their tool Reuben Abati. Abati got sued for slander and he alongside The Guardian newspapers had to apologize and retract what was concocted but the seed had already been sown. Abati had been a regular on Channels TV in the buildup to the 2011 election posing as a neutral. He eventually got rewarded with an appointment as a special adviser to Jonathan; the Presidency then had to beg Buhari in 2013 to settle the suit out of court. People said Buhari was behind the violence as he did not issue any condemnation. However, there are stories of issued press statements and an audio recording of an interview he granted condemning the violence and asking for peace. These didn’t dominate the headlines. It’s not in 2014/15 that they began smearing Buhari and turning the people against him.

Permit me to get back to writing about my education which is still ongoing. I studied our political and military history as well as examining our election patterns and associated dynamics. I will not give any opinion here about our founding fathers, the external forces or our military interrupters. There is transmitted animosity and as a people, we are general easily distracted by superficiality and glamour. This is the reason why it is relatively easy to manipulate people along the path of primitive ethnic, pseudo-intellectual or religious sentiments. Tell some people that they are better than others because of where they come from or what a religion suggests and you will produce arrogant and ignorant followers. Anybody can become a celebrity by simply brandishing academic certifications on social media and gaining followers. Another way is to ‘blow big grammar’ like Nnamdi Kanu or Femi Fani-Kayode and you are guaranteed disciples and worship. Fake news spread like wildfire and even when confronted with the truth, most peddlers will never acknowledge their error. Having money goes a long way just as a sprinkling of political power or religious authority also helps. There is nothing that cannot be abused by Nigerians.

The aforementioned indicates to me that there are very intelligent Nigerians who misuse their privileged positions to get ahead at the expense of the vulnerable. There are also very intelligent people who are either too timid to resist the manipulators or unconcerned about taking responsibility. It is this void that the manipulators have exploited over the years to remain relevant while leaving devastation in their wake. One would be regarded as a fool if one returned from serving the country without unexplainable wealth. Resources have been mined from the lands and waters for many decades and only a few detribalized Nigerians have regularly smiled to the bank while the rest who have been taught to exalt tribe and God over others are left with decay and poison. Bandits have mutilated our systems so badly that we will require a few decades to become ‘normal’ people again. In summary, we do not have enough good people standing up to speak and act. Do we abandon what we have and let the plunderers continue to have their way? This was the point I realized that before we could finally get on the path to recovery, we needed to snatch the reins first and the fellow who could get that done was a certain retired general.

There are different pathways to getting ahead in politics and most will require active participation. Considering the system of democracy we practice, one could follow the Macron pathway; get busy, learn the ropes, serve and then break away to start your own thing. I think this path is quite risky and dreams could easily fall through if one’s methods are not acceptable by the electorate. Another way is the Fashola pathway; serve under a leader in a critical position and impress with your work, then the leader uses his/ her influence to put you forward to succeed him/ her. One may say this is ‘godfatherism’ but technically it isn’t if it only involves getting introduced. The Obama pathway is a good one. Participate in local politics, ascend to congress and then shoot for Uranus. If one fails, one can always fall back to status quo, recoil and try again. One other way is when political stakeholders seek someone who they think is right for a particular season or situation. Dwight Eisenhower was sought out like this to become POTUS when America was confronted with the Cold War. President Truman tried to woo him to run as a democrat, even offering to be his running mate. This five-star general opted to run as a republican and won two landslide elections despite having limited political experience. He only retired less than eight months before he was sworn in as the 34^th POTUS.

It was clear to me that a fusion between Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the resurgent Southwest party, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) led by the highly controversial Uncle Bola was the way to deliver Nigeria from the grip of the PDP machinery. Obasanjo had initiated a system where a goat could defeat a strong man in his own polling unit and nothing would happen but the fellow who was in charge at the time was engrossed with going against some internal agreements within his party which he had agreed with. Jonathan was vulnerable and the All Progressives Congress was born with input from the likes of Rotimi Amaechi who initially left the PDP after being constantly harassed by Mother Superior Patience Lazarus Jonathan (Bipi’s godmother). The likes of Atiku realized that they wouldn’t get the chance to challenge Jonathan within the PDP to probably reclaim the Northern mandate so he decamped a 2^nd time in early 2014. Egbon Bukky on the other hand most likely moved because EFCC slammed eight cases of fraud on him in August 2013. By and large, the reality was that 'Buharimania' was sweeping the country and those who knew let the waves sweep them along. Some may ask why I am opposed to Atiku Abubakar who was once within the fold of the APC; a certain Fani-Kayode was also once in the APC. The United States and the United Kingdom partnered with the Soviet Union and China to defeat Germany and Japan during WWII; these are political realities.

The emergence of Buhari did not however come easy. I held on to my support for the APC until that happened. I wrote about meeting Governor Rauf Aregbesola at the Dubai International airport in November 2014 and pleaded with him to ensure that they [the genuine APC members] ensured that no imposter got the party’s ticket to challenge Jonathan. Buhari’s win at that primary was the sign I required to be certain that the reign of the PDP would be ended. I had examined the numbers and knew that the Southwest swinging to Buhari’s corner was the rate determining step. What I did not expect was victory in Plateau state. I was confident of victory and told everyone I met so but some sneered and opined that Atiku or Kwankwaso ought to have been the opponents to engage Jonathan. These ones were actually sympathetic to Jonathan’s reelection and were clearly made uncomfortable by Buhari’s emergence. Fast forward to October 2018; some are convinced that Buhari supporters are jittery because of Atiku and I can only laugh. The difference here is that no one has suggested that Saraki, Tambuwal or David Mark ought to have emerged. I didn’t care about who (from amongst the four returning prodigal children) was going to win the PDP primary. PDP became uncomfortable for these men in 2014 and they jumped ship. APC became too toxic for their growth and development and they bailed again. Should this not give the electorate a glimpse into the true nature of these men? The alignment of these individuals with their vomit informs me that my candidate is on track in his assignment to help hold off these bandits and plunderers.

Campaigning began and Buhari headed for the Southeast via the South-South. He didn’t speak much but held his right fist up. Jonathan and Patience also set out and we got serenaded with words and phrases like ‘born throwey’ and brain-dead. Ayo ‘cifiapains’ Fayose was busy taking out front page ads predicting how Buhari was going to die in office like Murtala and Umaru before him; he was also vocal about details of Buhari’s medical history. Okonjo-Iweala was busy signing memos of approval for Abacha returned loot money to be released to Major Sambo from the Central Bank. The media geniuses were busy with Cambridge Analytica releasing graphic material to scare the people about Buhari. They even had a documentary to demonize Buhari which NTA and AIT aired multiple times. Channels TV in particular did not stick their necks out for Jonathan like they did in 2011. Pastors and Bishops also got involved. Some opened the gates of hades and others simply helped to rally the brethren against an ‘Islamization’ agenda. All these happened but it is Buhari that divided Nigerians along ethnic and religious lines like never before.

Buhari won despite uncle Orubebe’s antics to distract the umpire. I expected a far wider margin but 3 million was still good enough. The hostility since March 2015 did not subside. The hate and vitriol directed at Buhari since then even from supposedly anointed lips is unimaginable. Every move gets criticized. He talk o, he no talk o na complain. When he stayed home, they mocked him asking why he was missing meetings where global players were in attendance; when he travelled they complained that he travelled too many times. He got sick and told Nigerians he was sick but some wished him death; even educated and sanctified folks did. I made up my mind very early not to join in stabbing my candidate for his errors like some were doing just to please others and lay claim to objectivity. I chose to defend him but some thought I was getting paid for it. Some people cannot comprehend how someone who doesn’t get a kobo sits and writes to defend someone they have been programmed or conditioned to hate, and this gives me joy.

Buhari hinted at merging ministries but some Nigerians raised the issue of federal character and balancing equations. Those who clearly rejected him at the polls became monitoring spirits demanding appointments. Young folks who I thought would see Buhari as the shield they needed to press through and hijack the existing structures became opportunists very early (I mean like a few months after May 2015) and began to exploit social media to undermine Buhari. Some thought that rubbishing Buhari who they had supported to overpower the PDP would cause Nigerians to see them as the cerebral leaders for 2019. PDP was in disarray but my people were too holy to invade that space. They opted to bake fresh loaves of bread instead and got a potpourri of the idealistic, the fence sitters, the pseudo-intellectuals and the pessimists into their camps as members. They remained on the sidelines criticizing and some tried their luck at a few elections. It’s best to describe their performances since then as marginally lackluster.

It is true that many who supported PMB in 2015 have shifted base but this does not bother me. Some moved on because they reverted to idealism while others did not probably understand the real challenges Nigeria faced and still faces. There are those ones who expected some dividends and didn’t get them and those who got angry at being overlooked for undeserving people. This is the basis of a series of outbursts from the chambers of the wife of the president. She suggested that they were people who worked for the electoral victory who got overlooked for those she didn’t even know. My opinion on this was that she was not on the ballot in 2015. I wouldn’t want my candidate to have to deal with a powerful first lady considering what Jonathan had to contend with. I am convinced that Mr. President still has a significant support base across the country consisting of people who are not necessarily Social media citizens who can ensure victory in 2019. I know religion will be a major issue in the Southeast and states like Plateau but I am not discouraged.

Under ideal temperature and pressure conditions, I would pick Raji Fashola as president of Nigeria if it was solely up to me. However, I am not ignorant of the nature of our politics. We are not yet at the point of being compared to Macron’s France or Obama’s America. It is my opinion that Nigeria should not be allowed to be returned to the custody of those who shared oil blocs like pizza slices and who took money from the Central Bank whenever they liked. The days when barrel bellied military officers presided over our security while stashing funds all over the place. I am not sure someone who clearly had criminal dealings with a convicted American Congressman William Jefferson ought to be honored with our nation’s highest office. He is now the toast of the town though; his age, ethnicity, religion and political history have all become irrelevant talking points for some youthful intellectuals who have either overtly or covertly backed him to dislodge the common enemy. Does he have a chance? We use the phrase “never say never” but in my opinion, I do not see Atiku defeating Buhari but please be free to support him and compete well to get him elected.

There are other aspirants in this race as usual, some of whom are thought to have realistic chances come February. You are also free to choose from among them if you haven’t yet decided like I have done.

Kingsley Moghalu is one of two former Central Bank officials in the race. His supporters have described him as well spoken and the type of intellectual we need in this century. I agree but honestly, I don’t see how he will make the grade.

Omoyele Sowore is too abrasive to appeal to the majority of Nigerians. He wants to take Nigeria back and has promised to jail people like Bukola Saraki and scrap the senate. This one sounds like a dictator in waiting. I don’t believe he has a chance.

Donald Duke the saxophonist has been kind of distant since he left CrossRiver government house. I think he was one of those who benefitted from being put forward in 1999 and should have been a better choice to run alongside Umaru than Goodluck. He is no doubt a very brilliant and ambitious man and got to take Sowore to the cleaners when they clashed at a function a few months ago. I do not think he has the right vehicle to make the much needed impression in 2019. Could he be enticed to fuse with the PDP? I think he will disrespect himself at this time if he became a running mate. He has been out of the limelight for too long and seems to be in the ring this time because someone else wants him there.

Oby Ezekwesili the FIFA referee has morphed into a HOPE selling candidate overnight. I think it’s too late to think that there are millions of angered voters who would gravitate towards her to spite the two towers. I don’t think she has a chance.

Fela Durotoye has great charm and packaging. I attended one of his meetings about two years ago with mostly young people who were and are still politically active. Presiding over a country as dynamic as Nigeria is not exactly private sector. In my opinion, he doesn’t have the requisite experience like a Donald Duke to withstand the pressure. As impressive as he appears, I think Nigerians need more than motivational talks. A graduate of Hogswart is who I think Nigerians demand. If a new President emerges in 2019, two years is all I think Nigerians will allow for radical progress to be seen before they turn on him/ her.

Are there others? I am not sure I know their names. Is KOWA going to feature again?

I have made my choice and it is Muhammadu Buhari because I believe the wrecking job required to incapacitate and permanently retire the real oppressors of this country is yet to be concluded. You may be convinced I am talking bollocks but one thing I can’t be accused of is basing my support on ethnic and religious sentiments or on financial inducements. I won’t curse or abuse you if you are for Atiku or any of the other youthful athletes, I will only debate you if you are not into fake news. The ball is in your court, make your choice and don’t be ashamed about it. Awolowo opined in 1961 that Politics is not a dirty game, how it is played is what can be termed clean or dirty. Don’t let any anointed screw with your head and ask you to behead anyone or open hades. It will be a game of numbers and a winner must emerge. If your choice wins then I will congratulate you and hope for the best for Nigeria.

PMB.

Cheers.

8/9-10-18

The Ondo maze

Ondo may just be Tinubu's best ever play or it may just be exactly as the media and the rumor mill have reported it; a tale of manipulation, desperation and betrayal. 

If the former is the case and Aketi wins, then BAT should get an Oscar for the best screenplay considering the fact that the same Aketi who he practically selected and openly backed came in third at the polls four years ago,  an evidence of the Ondo people revolting against imposition by the Bourdillon 'colonialist' perhaps. 

Although there is still talk about Akeredolu's unpopularity,  there are also muted celebrations and unrestrained cheers at the seemingly triumph over Tinubu's crusade to claim the entire Southwest. Aketi appears to be the poster grandpa for that revolt and should benefit to a reasonable extent from daring to deglove the hands that once fed him. 

I understand that the Iroko tree has been uprooting and replanting himself from Akure to Abuja and back to Akure. What is he really going about for?  Is there going to be something major happening to him when he leaves office like a bounty on his head? Was he at Aso Rock to simply brief the president on the elections or was he negotiating a buy out clause? 

I see the alliance for democracy candidate Mr Oke as a good man.  His demeanor appears not cut out for the 'roforofo' that is the Nigerian political space but i think he could be a good governor.  Olu Agunloye,  a former minister of power and someone i used to think looked like Wole Soyinka is also in the arena for the SDP but i think his lack of affiliation with the mainstream Naija politics like we've known it will count against him.  Jimoh Ibrahim is one interesting fellow,  he tried his best to deliver his best Trump impression at the debate yesterday and it made for really good laugh. 

Jimoh said he'd stop personal income taxation and security votes. The most amazing of all was that he would raise minimum wage in Ondo to N75,000 just like it's done in all his companies.  He boasted about the fleet of fuel stations he has in Ondo state alone and one wonders if the pump attendants there actually earn 75 grand a month. How did the PDP get themselves into this mitotic phase in the first place? 

The people may have been swayed by his rhetoric and may jolly well troop out to vote for him en masse; in this age of BREXIT and Trump, it will be folly to rule him out. 

Politics at the end of the day is still politics; no permanent allies and foes. Tinubu didn't support president Buhari until APC happened and Fayose at one point actively campaigned for Fayemi and he will do even more to escape what awaits him when his tenure ends and immunity vaporizes. If Aketi wins, Tinubu will probably be with him to celebrate so do not be surprised. At the end,  what Nigerians should ensure is good governance and accountability from these men and women entrusted with public office and not lining up on the street during working hours to collect small pieces of cake and N100 for coke on someone's birthday. 

Perhaps the Ondo resistance will finally fall come this weekend,  who knows?

John Inyang Okoro

Justice Inyang Okoro is currently trending in Nigeria's 'twittersphere' due to an explicit letter written by him to the Chief Justice of the federation explaining the source of the money found in his house by the operatives of the secret police and he also exposed an epic plot by Rotimi Amaechi, President Buhari and the All progressives congress to bribe him.  

You can be rest assured that twitter is buzzing and the honorable justice can now boast of many fans and Voltrons. My only wonder is why he has just come out now to defend himself. 

THE MONEY

Justice Okoro listed an Ipad, 3 phones,  $38,000 and N3. 5 million among the items taken away by the DSS from his home.  Some enraged individuals have questioned why the revered judge was whisked away because of just a paltry sum and Mr Okoro explained the dollars as the residue of estacodes accrued to him over the last three years on the bench. He had travel and medical allowances and was certain he didn't exhaust more than $5000 over three travels abroad.  Money from an international conference attended was not even part of the money found in his house.  I'm not sure he quite explained the source of the naira. 

From the tone of the judge's letter, it appears just about normal and right for a judge to have millions of naira and a few thousands of dollars in his bedroom for perhaps emergency purposes like purchasing diesel and ordering for pizza. It sounds like wisdom for people to stockpile dollars saved over three years or more from travels under their mattresses or in their fireproof safes instead of in our weak and distressed banks. 

His explanation has appealed to many individuals but I can only imagine if those who understand have relative amounts of cash in their homes on Friday nights and are able to sleep.  

THE ACCUSATION

Mr Okoro explained to the CJF that he was certain that his encounter with the DSS was related to his refusal to be bribed by Rotimi Amaechi. He reminded the CJF of a 'verbal' report he made to him after the minister of transport visited him in his home on Monday,  the 1st of February 2016.

According to Okoro, Amaechi was there on behalf of the president and APC to get him involved in a plot to sway the supreme court electoral appeals of Rivers, AkwaIbom  and Abia states in favor of the APC. He was promised an unspecified sum monthly to the tune of millions.  He claimed Amaechi was desperate not to lose out on the huge investments he had made in the APC candidate in AkwaIbom Mr Umana and so he needed the Justice to be on the panel an arrangement which Amaechi said the CJF was already aware of.  Umana was supposed to be the middle man for settling the transactions.

Mr Okoro thereafter reminded the CJF of another undocumented report he made to him about a prior visit by Mr Umana and a certain 'pastor' to him before Amaechi's visit.  He claimed Umana wanted to meet and settle the judges who would sit on the case a proposal that was "intercepted" [sic] by the pastor because that move wasn't in their original game plan.  Okoro was left out by the CJF based on these 'verbal' reports and the APC subsequently lost the appeals. 

RIVERS APPEAL

The tussle in Rivers was between PDP's Nyesom Wike and APC's Dakuku Peterside as it was disputed if an election actually took place in Rivers state in April 2015. The supreme court upheld Wike's election victory on January 27, 2016 so I wonder why Amaechi was at a Judge's house on February 1st 2016 which was a Monday to sway the decision in his party's favor.

AKWAIBOM APPEAL

This case was between PDP's Udom Emmanuel  and APC's Umana Umana. Mr Umana wanted an annulment even though the election results available showed the PDP man in the lead.  The appeal court granted Umana's wish on December 31st 2015 but by Wednesday the 3rd of February  2016, Udom was declared winner. If Umana was never going to be declared governor in the stead of Udom, why on earth was he prepared to spend and be spent for what would at best be a rerun verdict assuming Udom lost his case? What would have been President Buhari's gain if he had succeeded in overturning elections in regions where he's chronically despised? 

ABIA APPEAL

The contenders here were Okezie Ikpeazu of the PDP and Alex Otti.  In this case,  the court of appeal removed Ikpeazu and declared Otti the winner on the 31st of December 2015 but the supreme court reversed this on the 3rd of February 2016. What exactly was president Buhari's interest in Abia that he had to send Amaechi to alert the judge to take a bribe and turn the case?  Alex Otti did not even run on the platform of the APC but as a candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance APGA. Was Okoro confused by the 'AP' common to both APC and APGA? Should we assume that Mr Alex Otti was expected to decamp to the most unpopular party in the Southeast if his victory had stood? 

I am afraid that this Lambtale from the judge  doesn't quite add up on many levels.  The money and the February first visit defies logic and how a supreme court judge has managed to hing his defence on verbal communication with the CJF and with only two of the accused as witnesses is unbelievable. I truly don't know how or when judges to seat at panels are chosen but is it possible that the CJF is indicted in this matter based on the two verbal reports he allegedly got fed by Okoro and his move to exclude Okoro from the panel which decided the elections without disclosing anything to anybody?

The entire judiciary system seems to me like 'Fuji house of commotion.' It's high time our lawyers and judges got their acts together and for the people to stay focused. Distractions and blackmail abounds everywhere; some equations aren't getting balanced.